Who Will Buy Your HVAC Business?

If you’re an HVAC business owner thinking about selling—now or down the road—one question you might have is: Who will buy my company?

Interest in HVAC businesses continues to rise, likely due in part to their recurring revenue, steady cash flow, and essential, year-round demand. These qualities, combined with an aging generation of owners and a highly fragmented market primed for consolidation, have made HVAC companies increasingly attractive to buyers. In this article, we break down Axial platform data to explore exactly who those buyers are.

New Axial Buyers Interested in HVAC

The number of new buyers joining Axial interested in HVAC has grown significantly year-over-year. Between 2020 and 2023, new HVAC-focused buyers joining the platform increased by more than 140%. That momentum continued into 2024, and 2025 is pacing toward another record year, with an estimated 162 new buyers expected to join by year’s end—a 57% increase over 2024.

Buyers Actively Searching For HVAC Businesses

Below are the current HVAC deal intents by EBITDA range for active buyers on the Axial platform, broken down by industry and buyer type. 

Deal Intent Definition: A project created by a buyside member on Axial to signal the types of businesses they are actively looking to acquire or invest in, including criteria such as industry focus, size, and geographic preferences. It reflects their current acquisition mandate and helps streamline the sourcing and matching process on the platform. 

Based on the specified range, deal intents can fall into multiple EBITDA buckets; for example, a deal intent with an EBITDA range of $1M-$4M is included in both the $1M-$3M and $3M-$5M buckets.

HVAC Deal Intents By Buyer Type & EBITDA Range

The $1M–$5M EBITDA range stands out as the sweet spot for HVAC for the majority of buyer types, suggesting that companies in this range are perceived as mature enough to be attractive acquisition targets, while still appealing to a broad pool of buyers. 

Notably, in the sub-$1M EBITDA range, Corporations, HoldCos, and Individual Investors show high levels of interest, with at least 60% of their deal intents falling within this bucket. This indicates that smaller HVAC businesses appeal more to certain buyer profiles, particularly those looking for more affordable entry points, bolt-on acquisitions, or roll-up strategies.

Private Equity firms have balanced interest across $3M–$10M EBITDA HVAC businesses, with the highest percentage of deal intents in the $3M–$5M and $5M–$10M buckets at 85.25% and 83.61%, respectively. This likely reflects typical fund strategies focusing on more established companies with healthy cash flow and potential to serve as platforms or tuck-in acquisitions. 

Independent Sponsors account for 27% of all HVAC deal intents represented above—the highest share among buyer types. Their consistent presence across nearly every EBITDA range suggests they’re highly active in the market, likely due to their flexibility in deal structuring and willingness to pursue a wide range of opportunities.

Case Study: HVAC Sourcing Success on Axial

Independent Sponsor Amalgam Capital Closes 3rd Acquisition For HVAC Platform

Amalgam Capital has steadily built its HVAC investment portfolio since joining Axial in 2020, beginning with the acquisitions of Hampton Roads Mechanical in Virginia and State Mechanical Services in Illinois. Both deals were sourced through the Axial platform and closed simultaneously in September 2021. These acquisitions laid the groundwork for the formation of MechanAir, a commercial HVAC platform developed in partnership with PE firm Delos Capital.

Most recently, Amalgam added Chicago-based Core Mechanical to the MechanAir platform. The sellers were beginning their retirement process and had already put a strong operational leader in place to continue running the day-to-day business. They were seeking a partner who could provide management support and back-office infrastructure to help scale the company further. Amalgam began the search for its next partner company via Axial in 2023, and about six months after Core Mechanical came to market, executed an LOI with the sellers in Q2 2024. The deal closed in October 2024, roughly one year after Amalgam’s initial pursuit.

Amalgam Capital’s success showcases how to effectively compete in the lower middle market HVAC space—identifying the right opportunities, partnering with capable operators, and leveraging platforms like MechanAir to drive long-term growth. From sourcing its first two HVAC acquisitions through Axial in 2021 to closing its third with Core Mechanical in 2024, Amalgam has demonstrated a patient, strategic approach to building value in a fragmented industry.

For HVAC business owners exploring a sale, recognizing how different buyer types approach acquisitions is key—each brings distinct priorities, resources, and timelines. With growing interest in the sector, a clear view of the broader buyer landscape can help owners identify the right fit and navigate the path to a successful exit.

Looking to Exit Your Business? Explore Axial’s Advisor Finder.

Additional Resources 

For more insights on preparing for a sale and navigating the exit process, check out Sell My HVAC Business: How to Achieve Your Ideal Exit—a practical guide to help HVAC business owners plan for and execute a successful transition.

Want to get an estimate for the value of your business? Try Axial’s free Business Valuation Calculator to get a ballpark range based on your company’s financial profile.