Industry Report: Consumer & Retail Q3 2025 [Peakstone]

Key Report Highlights

• M&A Activity Remains Geographically Concentrated and Strategically Driven
  While total deal volume has moderated since pandemic-era peaks, consumer and retail M&A remains active, with 174 strategic and 23 financial transactions completed through Q1 2025. Activity is especially concentrated in key states like California, Texas, Florida, and Illinois, which collectively account for over 25% of all deals since 2000.
• Median Transaction Value Hits Record High
  The consumer and retail sector reached its highest-ever median transaction value in Q1 2025 at $50 million—double the prior year’s figure and more than triple the long-term average. This reflects a shift in buyer appetite toward scalable, defensible businesses with solid revenue visibility and profitability profiles.
• Valuations Rebound as Buyer Confidence Strengthens
  After a dip in 2023, median EV/EBITDA multiples rose to 8.4x, and EV/Revenue to 0.9x, signaling increased buyer confidence and stronger market positioning by sellers. While still below 2021’s peak levels, these metrics suggest healthy deal dynamics are returning to the market, particularly for differentiated brands.
• Retail & Services Stocks Outperform Broader Market
  Retail and consumer services companies have delivered 130% returns since 2014, outperforming categories like auto/electronics and leisure. Apparel stocks are also showing strength, with 118% total return over the same period. Public market valuations support a median EV/EBITDA of 15.4x for Retail & Services, indicating investor confidence in the segment’s long-term growth trajectory.
• Notable Deals Span Discount Retail, Car Wash, Footwear, and EdTech
  Several high-profile middle market deals closed in Q1, including Brigade Capital’s $1.0B acquisition of Family Dollar Stores, Express Wash’s $385M purchase of International Car Wash Group, and Caleres’ $105M buyout of Stuart Weitzman. These transactions reflect a focus on value-oriented retail, recurring service models, and lifestyle brands—areas that continue to attract strategic and private equity buyers alike.

Peakstone Group is a Chicago-based, 40+ person investment bank that specializes in mergers and acquisitions advisory and capital raising. An Axial member since 2010, Peakstone works across a variety of industries and has marketed more than 270 deals on the Axial platform at the time of publication.

Peakstone is a trusted member of the Axial Partnership Program and contributes content and industry insights to Axial’s Middle Market Review. The following report is a Peakstone Group publication, which has been approved for Axial to share with its network.

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